var
Ann,Ann1,A1, Brian,Brian1,B1, Clare,C1, Diane,D1, Eric,Eric1,E1,
Fred,F1, Gene,G1, Henry,Henry1,H1, Ian,I1, Jane,J1,
a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h,i[3],p,q, p.mendelian[3,3,3], p.recessive[3,2];
model {
q ~ dunif(0,1); # prevalence of a1
p <- 1 - q; # prevalence of a2
Ann1 ~ dbin(q,2); Ann <- Ann1 + 1; # geno. dist. for founder
Brian1 ~ dbin(q,2); Brian <- Brian1 + 1;
Clare ~ dcat(p.mendelian[Ann,Brian,]); # geno. dist. for child
Diane ~ dcat(p.mendelian[Ann,Brian,]);
Eric1 ~ dbin(q,2); Eric <- Eric1 + 1;
Fred ~ dcat(p.mendelian[Diane,Eric,]);
Gene ~ dcat(p.mendelian[Diane,Eric,]);
Henry1 ~ dbin(q,2); Henry <- Henry1 + 1;
Ian ~ dcat(p.mendelian[Clare,Fred,]);
Jane ~ dcat(p.mendelian[Gene,Henry,]);
A1 ~ dcat(p.recessive[Ann,]); # phenotype distribution
B1 ~ dcat(p.recessive[Brian,]);
C1 ~ dcat(p.recessive[Clare,]);
D1 ~ dcat(p.recessive[Diane,]);
E1 ~ dcat(p.recessive[Eric,]);
F1 ~ dcat(p.recessive[Fred,]);
G1 ~ dcat(p.recessive[Gene,]);
H1 ~ dcat(p.recessive[Henry,]);
I1 ~ dcat(p.recessive[Ian,]);
J1 ~ dcat(p.recessive[Jane,]);
a <- Ann == 2; # event that Ann is carrier
b <- Brian == 2;
c <- Clare == 2;
d <- Diane == 2;
e <- Eric == 2;
f <- Fred == 2;
g <- Gene == 2;
h <- Henry == 2;
for (J in 1:3) {
i[J] <- Ian == J # i[1] = a1 a1
# i[2] = a1 a2
# i[3] = a2 a2 (i.e. Ian affected)
}
}